Sunday, October 09, 2016

Trump2016: The Anatomy of a Failed Attack

In just a few short hours the second of the 2016 Presidential Debates will get underway; but it isn't the debate that many were thinking it would be. Just less than 72 hours ago the Liberal Broadcast, Print, and Online media launched one of their most vicious attacks against Republican Nominee Donald Trump. After over a calendar year of muckraking and soil shifting there was finally an attack that would end the threat of Trump once and for all.  Liberals and Establishment Republicans alike were, and pardon the mental imagery, fellating themselves over the impending doom of Donald Trump.

This attack would certainly be the linchpin that would cause the Make America Great Again movement to wither and die. The attack that would send Trump himself back into one of his vast towers to never be seen again. The laser-targeted karma bomb that would ensconce an Establishment Republican square where one belonged in the Republican listing for the ballot box.  The indisputable evidence that would ensure the victory of the Secretary of the Status Quo and once again enshrine Republicans In Name Only in their comfortable couches doing nothing inside the Beltway.

The attack was simple. Nothing more than a tape of Donald Trump before a cameo appearance on a Soap Opera several years ago saying something rather vulgar and crude. Proof that Donald Trump's character was so thoroughly flawed he was unfit to serve in the Office of the President of the United States.

Within hours the sounds of cheers and popped champagne bottles from within the confines of Liberals and Establishment Republican Domiciles faded. In it's place came the sound of whimpers, glasses crashing into floors and walls, and then ever so faintly the sound of cursing and the gnashing of teeth.

In a move completely unpredicted by any Liberal Politician or Establishment Republican an end run was made around the vaunted news networks. Before even 24 hours had passed, before the sun had even set over parts of the United States, before any focus group could have been convened, before any messages could have crafted with the help of a large public relations staff, before any of the usual steps that would be taken in the face of such a dire emergency, Donald Trump acted. At 11:19pm October 7th 2016 Donald Trump had posted videos available on both his Facebook and Twitter accounts.

By the time 3:17am rolled around on October 8th 2016 Twitter was reporting 16,191 retweets and 32,343 favorites; while Facebook had increased to 2.7 million reported views. In the middle of the night and already the videos had accumulated more unique views than CNN gets on a yearly basis; dominating the social network trending results.

The content of the videos was a simple speech with these opening lines:
Here is my statement. 
I’ve never said I’m a perfect person, nor pretended to be someone that I’m not. I’ve said and done things I regret, and the words released today on this more than a decade-old video are one of them. Anyone who knows me, know these words don’t reflect who I am.
I said it, it was wrong, and I apologize.
The day hadn't even ended on the attack and Donald Trump took ownership of the words; expressed remorse; and offered an apology. The very simple steps a Liberal Politician or Establishment Republican would never, or even could never, consider enacting. There was absolutely no effort made in the statement to defend the taped event, hide it, disguise it, or contextualize it. Donald Trump did exactly what any reasonable person would have demanded in such circumstances.

Rather than destroying Donald Trump the attack did nothing more than outrage an already angry voter base. Now a number of politicians who decided to ride the coattails of the attack might be facing their own rapidly diminished career options.

A Doomed Attack

In talking with various people on October 8th I came to an unusual conclusion. For many voters the attack itself was on an already settled issue. Senator Ted Cruz had broached the New York Values issue during the GOP Primary Debates. To many outside voters New York is the city that made no effort to initiate a recall vote on Mayor Deblasio. It was the state that somehow sent Hillary Clinton into political office where she did nothing. It was the state where the Attorney General opened up investigations for purely political reasons with no actual legal cause to support those investigations.

Investors who engage in trading on New York's Wall Street have reputations of very loose couplings between morals, ethics, and business practices. As a New York businessman himself Donald Trump has often been the very caricature of the not-that-attractive rich person who can afford a Trophy Wife. Sanctity of life, marriage, and even traditional family values are not really associated with the Wall Street Business Crowd.

Donald Trump's own potentially loose connections to the values that many under the Republican banners hold dearly was a huge part of the GOP nomination process. The voters decided though that they didn't care about Donald Trump's three marriages. They didn't care about his reputation, real or perceived, as a skirt chaser through the years.

The attack itself then; of quote/unquote "Locker Room Banter" over skirt chasing; wasn't anywhere close to pressing the limits how many voters have viewed Donald Trump over the years. Just to put this in perspective, one of my friends once outright stated that his only issue with Trump is that he wished Trump would stay within 20 years of his (Trump's) own age for a wife.

For a vast majority of the Republican base that had supported Donald Trump from the start; and those who had flocked to the banner afterwards; the attack wasn't addressing anything that had not already been addressed. It was a dead issue.

It wasn't like the attack would be particularly beneficial to dissuading Democrat Defectors either:

Open The Floodgates on Bill

The most catastrophically under planned aspect of the attack on Donald Trump is that the video was only of one incident. That incident took place in the year 2005.

Donald Trump has been a Public Figure since at least the 1970's. Never mind for a moment that the Obama Administration has been trying to discredit Donald Trump since he took issue with Obama's lack of transparency and unwillingness to simply be truthful. Just starting from the first GOP Primary Debate in 2015 it took over a calendar year for somebody, ANYBODY, from any party or campaign to dig up something with Donald Trump saying something totally screwed up... and it was from eleven years ago.

This was not a recent event such as Hillary Clinton's Basket of Deplorables or Basement Dwellers. insults. This wasn't an ongoing re-occurrence such as Bill Clinton's Energizer.

There is no line-up of women on social media filing police reports and attempting to take legal actions because Donald Trump did or said something sexual towards them. There is no overwhelming employment record suggesting Donald Trump has a personal misogynistic streak in his own companies. There is no evidence of such vulgar skirt-chasing talk being more than a contextualized one off incident; if that.

There is, however, a long string of such events with Bill Clinton. There are numerous police reports on file accusing the former president of sexually charged acts. Such charges covering abuse, assault, and even outright rape.

There has been a long litany of attempted legal actions against Bill Clinton over his sexual actions. Legal actions that been countered directly by Hillary Clinton. Victims of Bill Clinton's sexual actions charge Hillary with acts of obstruction of justice and intimidation.

There is an entire universe of difference between something Donald Trump said; and what Bill Clinton actually did. A difference that, should Donald Trump be on his Alpha Level game in the 2nd Presidential Debate; receive the quite the highlight.

The Liberal Politician and Establishment Republican desperately wanted for there to be no debate; as a result of Donald Trump withdrawing from the race; or if there was a debate for it to be entirely about what an awful human being Donald Trump was. Instead all the attack on Donald Trump has done is to give a platform to talk about Bill Clinton's misdeeds and Hillary's Complicity in burying those misdeeds.

Given that the Bill Clinton was sent into the Office of the President of the United States twice; and given that Hillary Clinton finally has her own shot at the office; circumstantial evidence would highly suggest that the average voter for the Party of the Democrats  has absolutely zero interest in sexually charged words or actions being a factor in their decision. That circumstantial evidence would then highly suggest that the average Democrat Defector crossing party lines wouldn't be affected by the taped event either.

The Stone is not for Throwing

As the debate looms ever closer and social network feeds start trending over what people expect to see or hear; other thoughts cross my mind. As I think about the attack itself I'm struck by how similar it is to events that would be found in movies from the likes of Jim Carrey, Kevin Smith, Seth Rogen, or Adam Sandler. I find myself wondering just how much of the taped event was Donald Trump being serious; or just simply telling his own version of the very offensive jokes that have defined Raunchy Comedies over the years.

I find myself wondering where the outrage and anger is at the movies and television that continually push the envelopes of decency, morality, and ethics. What made Donald Trump's event so different, or so unusual, that it could possibly justify any publication or person calling for Donald Trump to withdraw from the race?

I don't have an answer for that; because I don't think there is one beyond simple political spite. A call for withdrawal should have only been issued if Donald Trump had openly refused to apologize, ducked an apology, or performed some sort of Hillary Clinton style action to avoid taking any responsibility.  Instead of acting appropriately, the Liberal Politicians, Establishment Republicans, and those collected under the NeverTrump banner, have only gotten more bitter; and more aggressive; as the end of their political futures approaches.

Possibly the most damaged out of all of the Republican Figures who took to calling for Trump to withdraw is Carly Fiorina. Carly spent a significant amount of her own presidential campaign trying to convince potential voters that she was not the same person she was in 2005. The person who routinely shows up on lists of Worst CEOS of All Time. 

Then, in a single tweet, all of that work got thrown away. Carly might sound like me, might sound like she reads my blog, but jumping on Donald Trump without a proof of pattern or re-occurrence is a mistake her political career might not recover from. The key here is those patterns and points of re-occurrence.

Case in point would be Bill Clinton. According to Colin Powell the former president is still bedding down anything with a pulse that will drop it's panties. The issue of Bill Clinton's sexually charged actions matter because it is still very much a part of the former president's ongoing life.

Then there is the entire issue of Hillary Clinton herself. The single event captured on tape with Donald Trump resulted in no loss of life, no loss of property, and if it weren't for the leak of that tape it would have gone completely unnoticed. By contrast Hillary's behind the scenes actions have caused the direct loss of American Lives, the indirect loss of American Lives, the destruction of personal and private property of American Citizens, the open access of United States national secrets to foreign powers, open maleficence in office, obstruction of justice, interference in a federal investigation, the loss of American jobs, the collapse of American Health Care, and so on and so forth.

The patterns and re-occurrences of Hillary Clinton's constant stream of lies, propaganda, crafted messages, and covert actions paint a very vidid picture of somebody who belongs in a Federal Penitentiary. What Hillary Clinton did in private MATTERS because her actions have had very real negative and destructive effects on American Citizens.

Donald Trump might not be the ideal candidate that every Republican Desires. Donald Trump is, however, the candidate that the party voted for.

The key point now is too look at how Donald Trump handles the challenges thrown his way. Donald Trump did the right thing, the correct thing, the moral and ethical thing, by owning up to the words of his past and issuing an apology. That kind of action is the one that deserves support; not condemnation.

It was the action that requires everybody who understands just what threat Hillary poses to stand up and say: We Need To Elect Donald Trump.

Thursday, October 06, 2016

A Vote For anybody but Donald Trump is a vote for Hillary Clinton

As early voting get's underway I wanted to try and address a few subjects that have been sitting in my mind since Senator Cruz nearly ended his national career ambitions at the GOP convention. I've taken so long to address those subjects that Senator Cruz has had time to honor his pledge to endorse the GOP Nominee; as well for the number of scandals surrounding Hillary Clinton to increase. Perhaps the most relevant event to what I want to talk about concerns statements from Palmer Luckey of Facebook's Oculus division.

The short version is that an event occurred that attached Palmer Luckey to support of Donald Trump. Kotaku, in following with the political mandate set by Gawker and apparently continued under Univision owership; launched a few attacks against Mr. Luckey. Then Mr. Luckey said something that he probably shouldn't have; saying he was going to vote independent. Which comes down to voting for Hillary Clinton.

For those unfamiliar with the claims made about Mr. Luckey's intelligence, he supposedly solved critical issues with Virtual Reality displays in his back garage. ZeniMax/Bethesda has quite a different view; stating in an ongoing lawsuit that the critical issues with Virtual Reality displays were solved by IDSoftware and that John Carmack stole those technological solutions and gave them to Palmer Luckey's Oculus company. The ongoing court-case between ZeniMax/Bethesda and the current owner of Oculus, which is Facebook, is likely going to result in courtroom shenanigans making the SCO vs. IBM and Oracle vs. Google cases look polite and well mannered. That being said, Mr. Luckey's political commentary lends credence to the ZeniMax/Bethesda position that Mr. Luckey isn't the genius he's been made out to be.

The outstanding point to be addressed here is the a number of people ranging from Republicans with long standing party associations; aka the quote/unquote #NeverTrump crowd; and others such as Mr. Luckey continue to suggest that voters look at an independent candidate rather than one of the two main political party candidates. For some it's seen as voting for a protest candidate; but under the current election system for the Office of the President of the United States; Protest Candidates Do Not Exist.

More critically: under the current election system for the Office of the President of the United States; a vote for any candidate other than the Republican Nominee is always a vote for the Democratic Nominee.

Confused? Let me try and explain.

Brace For Generalized Maths

There are multiple aspects as to exactly why a vote against one candidate is a vote for a different candidate; even if the vote was cast for a third candidate. The first aspect I will address is that of the population ratio.

Typically speaking in terms of United States History in regards to national level elections; 22%~29% of the public registered to vote will always vote for the same party; with the exact percentage largely only affected buy voter enthusiasm. If the Party is fired up it is likely that the higher end 29% figure will be out in force. If the Party is depressed it is likely that the lower end 22% figure will be in play.

The obvious average data-point then is that roughly 44% to 58% of the public registered to vote is exempt from the promotional cycles.  This leaves anywhere from 42% to 56% of the population registered to vote actually being open to vote for a different candidate. Many independent candidates come across these numbers and then think they have a chance to win a national level seat; since an average rough half US citizens who are registered to vote could be available.

It's not that simple.

The Difference Between Registered to Vote; And Voting

The key point to be made here is that party ideologues with a vested interest in the winner of an election are more likely to turn out to vote than the 42% to 56% that could be swung either way on any given election. In plain terms; think of it this way:

  • 30% of the population that actually votes will always vote Democrat
  • 30% of the population that actually votes will always vote Republican
  • 60% of the population vote is already sewn up before the first ballot is cast.

This is the key point as to why an independent candidate never stands a plausible chance of a victory on a national level. Only 40% of the population that actually votes is likely to step outside party lines. Most elections require that a candidate receive over 50% of the vote in order to qualify as the winner; although many elections may only require a simple majority.

  • The Democrat Candidate only needs to convince 21% of the undecided population
  • The Republican Candidate only needs to convince 21% of the undecided population 
  • The Independent needs 35% of the undecided population for a guaranteed tie

The math here isn't that complex. If an Independent does not carry at least 35% of the undecided vote; then the opposing parties would each only need that remaining unclaimed 5% to reach a tie; 30% + 5% being 35%.  Even if the Independent got 34.99% of the vote; the 5.01% unclaimed vote would be enough to give another party the edge in a simple majority election.

This is why candidates not affiliated with major parties can win at a local, state, or even parliamentary level as in the case with the Pirate Party. Independently aligned candidates fare better where local issues are the defining aspect of a race. Against larger party competition; the problem quickly scales out of a reasonable perspective. Compared to the major party candidates; the independently aligned candidate has to openly appeal to nearly twice as many voters who will actually vote.

While candidates have successfully run on single-issue platforms for various offices; higher-level national offices typically require more than just single-issue candidates. The candidates have to address a wide spectrum of issues; which in turn decreases the viability of a single-issue candidate.

This is an aspect of the problem the GOP has run into in past elections. As the election race for the office of the President of the United States draws towards it's ballot box date the GOP candidates have typically raced for a middle-road political position; leaving no real differences in policies or platforms compared to the competition.

Independents trying to court votes on a wider scale typically run into the problem that for the most part; they don't actually have that many policies or platforms that are radically different; if different at all; from a candidate in a major party. Appealing to nearly twice the number of voters that a major party candidate has to appeal to means having to make greater compromises on positions and ideologies. This means that not only does a candidate have to work to gain more votes than a major party competitor; a candidate also has to do that work while trying to be different enough from either major party competitor to stand out; while also adopting enough of each parties major platform points in order to attract the voters who would lean closer towards chosing a major political party candidate.

Bringing Trump Back In

The problem of numerical statistics is even greater for Donald Trump. Donald Trump is probably the first candidate in a long time nominated to the candidacy position where various party members with timeline seniority have no intention of supporting the party candidate.

Roughly speaking; 10% of the active and enthused Republican Base might not vote for Donald Trump. For reference that figure is largely obtained through the analysis of voter activity over the course of the 2016 Presidential Primaries as NeverTrumpers slowly shifted percentage ratios to candidates that were not Donald Trump. The actual number is probably far smaller; but the point of keeping the math simple; the generalized maths probably go something like this:

  • 30% of the voting population will vote Hillary Clinton no matter what happens.
  • 20% of the voting population will vote Donald Trump no matter what happens.
  • 10% of the voting population will NOT vote Donald trump regardless of what happens
  • 40% of the voting population could still be swayed one direction or another.

Since most State races require a simple 50% majority; Donald Trump has the unfortunate position of having to attract at least 31% of the unclaimed 40% in order to win a general election; while Hillary Clinton only has to attract 21% of that unclaimed 40% to carry victory.

That's a pretty tall order.  It's made more complex by:

That Electoral College

On paper and in conception the Electoral College was a brilliant stroke of government design. The Founding Fathers of the United States had come from a country where the city born Barons, Dukes, Kings, Queens, and other associated members of royalty dictated life outside their walls; without a clue as to what people outside those walls actually did. The disconnect between city life and those who tilled the land itself is a largely under-accredited aspect of the events highlighted at the Boston Tea Party. For those who studied history in a US School through the 1990s or into the 2000's, the Boston Tea Party was not actually a social event where US and British Sailors got into a slap fight.

It was a protest against the British royalty raising taxes without any representation from those on whom the taxes where levied. In other words; the British Royalty decreed that the colonists would simply hand over more money; even though they didn't do a single thing to make that money. If that sounds familiar to the DNC's line of "RAISE TAXES!"  ... congrats. You are officially smarter than Hillary Clinton.

The initial construction of the US Voting System thus tied voting rights to Men who actually owned real estate. This insured that whoever voted; and in turn whoever actually participated in politics; had a very real stake in the effects of their decisions.

However; the Founding Fathers likely did  envision a day when maybe the framework wouldn't be so tightly tied to whoever actually owned land. The Electoral College then is a solution to decoupling the direct stake each voter has in each election; an in turn leveraging other factors; such as economic conditions or local culture; have a greater factor in a chosen candidate.

At it's core; the Electoral College is supposed to function under the same tenants as Congress itself. The basic flow chart kind of looks like this:

In local elections the voter directly casts their vote for a candidate. In larger elections; such as the election for the Office of the President of the United States; the vote is used to determine the Elector of the candidate. The Elector then represents the interests of those who voted and casts their Electoral Vote on the basis of what the constituents voted for.  This follows the same rough model of Congress is helping to shape a majority represented opinion on legislation.

This was an ideal solution to the growing nature of the United States when the primary method of travel involved a horse. It made much more sense for a single rider to carry the representation of their city, county, or state in the form of a cast vote. Such a system would also scale with size; the electoral process itself helping to distill a wide range of potential candidates for a single political position.

However; the system has never really been readjusted for modern times. The election process for the office of the President Of the United States still awards the totality of the electoral college vote on the basis of whoever carries the total population of a state. In states like California the vast majority by land might vote Republican; but since Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, and Oakland are hotbeds of liberal democrat ideology; just roughly 4 cities dictate the economic and social consequences for the rest of the state.

This distillation of the population vote into a representative vote is the very process that completely eliminates protest votes or non major party candidates 

Of course; the Democrats don't want the system to be updated. Even a cursory glance at voting percentages by land over the 1992, 1996, 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012 elections show that a Democrat would likely never again be able to hold a national level office if the Electoral College was shifted to use a district system that more closely followed the intent of the Electoral College. Right now it's just politically expedient to award the entire electoral college of a state to whoever carries the population vote; regardless of the real economic and social repercussions.

What this means for Your Own Personal Vote

or: Why You Should Vote for Donald Trump

Under the current system of election for the Office of the President of the United States the only purpose a vote for a third party candidate is to deny either Major Party Candidate a population vote. Or in simpler terms: It Means That A Voter Did Not Want Their Vote To Count

I understand a lot of the fear, uncertainty, and even doubt that surrounds Donald Trump. I've dealt with such F.U.D. from Microsoft for literal decades now. Politically speaking Donald Trump is not my ideal candidate; but he has been making almost all of the correct maneuvers. Donald Trump has been seeking out the advice of all the people I would go to to seek out advice. I might not like all of his policies; but I can envision and understand them.

Hillary Clinton, on the other hand, is most certainly the candidate nobody wants. The Democratic National Party turned her down for a shot at the Presidential Nomination in 2004 when it was decided she didn't have enough support to run at all; in 2008 when she did run against the no-name Barack Obama; and again in 2012 when she ran against one of the worst sitting Presidents in the history of the United States.

As of this posting Hillary Clinton has become the poster child for Open Corruption. Her husband openly meets with the Director of the Department of Justice for the United States during a criminal investigation. The Federal Bureau of Investigation for the United States destroys evidence under subpoena from both Congress and a Federal Judge; while granting limited immunity to prosecution outside the legal constraints of a Sitting Grand Jury. The FBI Director also openly admits that a criminal investigation failed to address evidence uncovered by Congress or uncovered in other ongoing Federal cases. The same FBI Director that also confirmed Hillary's confessions of various crimes then declining to recommend prosecution in the same breath.

The Obama Administration is no longer bothering to hide it's open stonewalling of Congressional Investigations or ongoing Federal Level Lawsuits. Involved parties are being told that evidence under subpoena will not be made available. The FBI refused to provide Congress with unredacted reports; forcing a dramatic showdown on Broadcast Television.

On top of all of the legal scandals, Hillary Clinton openly insults anybody who holds opposing viewpoints. Need I say more than Basket of Deplorables.

Despite all of the legal issues; trust issues; health issues; and absolute lack of interest; a significant number of Print and Broadcast Media Organizations would have voters believe that Hillary Clinton still holds an electoral edge. To just try and put this in perspective:

In the wake of the first Presidential Debate of 2016 the vast majority of responses in the 48 hours after the debate showed Donald Trump as the winner with a 2:1 ratio.  In other words; out of about every 100 people that would vote in a trackable poll over who won the debate; Donald Trump had 66% to 67% of the vote versus Hillary Clinton's 33% to 34%.

Yet; polls trying to determine who would win the election if the election were held ahead of time showed Hillary Clinton gaining a bump in her poll numbers while Donald Trump's numbers dipped.

Pardon my Russian for a moment: Какого черта!, Черт возьми!, Ради бога! Это не логично. 

This would mark the first time in modern polling history where a candidate won a Presidential Debate and had their numbers drop; while the loser had their numbers bump. It defies belief and comprehension.

What Hillary Has:

The only thing Hillary has left is an infrastructure. There are a massive number of fiscally vested parties involved with Hillary's campaign; ranging from bought-off labor unions to openly corrupt local, if not state, governments. The vast voting base that always votes for the Democratic Candidate is not going to go away. There are a large of number of US Citizens who are under a perceived, if not possibly realistic, pressure to vote for Hillary or lose their livelihood.

The Democratic National Party might not be enthused about voting for Hillary; but they'll show up at the polls. The DNC will also cheat; committing every single little bit of voter fraud the DNC and it's affiliates can get away with.

Proving Voter Fraud though is notoriously difficult. In states that are bastions for members of the DNC it can be nigh-on impossible to do something as simple and sane as ask for a Drivers License or other proof of identification before voting. Record numbers of illegal aliens will also find their way into the voting polls due to the efforts of DNC members.

It's this infrastructure of illegal votes, coerced votes, and legal votes that still give Hillary Clinton the potential capability to carry the 2016 election. It doesn't matter how nasty her campaign is; how many crimes she is known to have committed;  or anything else.

The Solution:

 The solution is a simple one. Do not throw a vote away. Do not cast a meaningless symbol that is discarded by the in-place system. There are better, and more accurate, methods of national elections that can follow the framework the Founding Fathers of the United States laid out. The system can be fixed; but it requires taking steps to get to a point where the system can be fixed.

A vote for a third party candidate is not a solution. It just simply means one less vote towards a solution. If Mr. Palmer Luckey were really the genius he's been made out to be; he'd have an innate understanding of the electoral system and would have never suggested voting for a third party candidate.

Right now that step towards solving the breaks in the Election System; the step towards ending the Open Corruption of the Obama Administration and Hillary Clinton is this: Vote For Donald Trump.

That's it. It's just that simple.